Clinton’s lead in polls has tightened, Trump unpredictable

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Donald Trump reduced to single digits his distance to Hillary Clinton in the nation-wide polls, shows the latest poll conducted days before first presidential debate on Monday.

A new McClatchy-Marist poll indicates that Clinton’s lead has tightened to 7 percent from 15 in early August. Her base also seems to be shrinking.

Clinton’s strong supporters group is 10 percent smaller than 62 percent the Donald Trump’s base. As poll shows, 62 percent Clinton’s supporters “might not change their decision” during elections. Trump’s base of loyal voters is 7 percent stronger.

Trump’s lead among Americans that think he has “the stamina to be president” widened to 15 percent.

Likely voters still “generally more trust” that Clinton not Trump will handle better immigration (54-41 percent), job-creation (49-43 percent) and fair trade negotiations (52-42 percent). But 8 percent more voters, including 3 percent of Democrats, think that Trump is more “honest and trustworthy” than Clinton. Trump also leads among voters convinced that he “shares their values”.

The McClatchy-Marist poll was conducted from Sept. 15-20, reaching 1,298 adults via landlines and cell phones. Of those 1,298 respondents, 758 were considered likely voters based on a probability turnout model. The margin of error for all respondents was plus-or-minus 2.7 percentage points and the margin of error for likely voters was plus-or-minus 3.6 points.

 

Clinton, Trump struggle to repair the favourability ratings

Senior Democrats believe that senator Bernie Sanders on the ticket could have improved Clinton ratings.  In national polls Clinton’s favourability is at a dismal 41% (according to the Huffington Post.) Sanders’ polls however, are much higher. His 53.4% favorable rating is so far ahead of both candidates that the poll suggests he would easily beat both Clinton and Trump if elections were held today.

Latest Donald Trump’s move to appoint popular anti-abortion politicians and leaders including former senator Rick Santorum, former Ambassador to Vatican Jim Nicholson and founder of Ave Maria University Tom Monaghan as his advisors is aimed to improve his image among the Catholic voters, who twice elected President Obama.

Distinguished American professor of history Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 said that this year Donald Trump is the favorite to win.

“Very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory”, he said.

Lichtman cautiously stated that victory may be won by Republican Party because “given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose”.

(pht)

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